Developing Mathematical Models of Infection and Transmission to Link Biology, Epidemiology and Public Health Policy

A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination

MJ Lydeamore, PT Campbell, DG Regan, SYC Tong, RM Andrews, AC Steer, L Romani, JM Kaldor, J McVernon, JM McCaw

2019-03-01

Infections with Sarcoptes scabiei, or scabies, remain common in many disadvantaged populations. Mass drug administration (MDA) has..

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria

DS Khoury, R Aogo, G Randriafanomezantsoa-Radohery, JM McCaw, JA Simpson, JS McCarthy, A Haque, D Cromer, MP Davenport

2018-09-01

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmo..

A dynamic stress model explains the delayed drug effect in artemisinin treatment of Plasmodium falciparum

P Cao, N Klonis, S Zaloumis, C Dogovski, SC Xie, S Saralamba, LJ White, FJI Fowkes, L Tilley, JA Simpson, JM McCaw

2017-12-01

Artemisinin resistance constitutes a major threat to the continued success of control programs for malaria, particularly in light ..

A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection

P Cao, N Klonis, S Zaloumis, DS Khoury, D Cromer, MP Davenport, L Tilley, JA Simpson, JM McCaw

2017-10-07

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives—the m..

Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

AJ Black, N Geard, JM McCaw, J McVernon, JV Ross

2017-06-01

Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that respo..

Corrigendum to ‘‘Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host’’ [J.Theor. Biol. 413 (2017) 34–49] (S0022519316303629)(10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.11.008)

AWC Yan, P Cao, JM Heffernan, J McVernon, KM Quinn, NL La Gruta, KL Laurie, JM McCaw

2017-04-21

Upon reviewing the above article, the authors found an error in Fig. 2A, where effector CD8⁺ T cells originating from m..

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

AE Zarebski, P Dawson, JM McCaw, R Moss

2017-02-01

Epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as Melbourne (Australia) where there is also signif..

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

AWC Yan, P Cao, JM Heffernan, J McVernon, KM Quinn, NL La Gruta, KL Laurie, JM McCaw

2017-01-21

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are success..

Retrospective forecasting of the 2010-2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems

R Moss, A Zarebski, P Dawson, JM McCaw

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Accurate forecasting of seasonal influenza epidemics is of great concern to healthcare providers in temperate climates, si..

High conservation level of CD8 T cell immunogenic regions within an unusual H1N2 human influenza variant

N Komadina, SM Quiñones-Parra, K Kedzierska, JM McCaw, A Kelso, K Leder, J McVernon

2016-10-01

Current seasonal influenza vaccines require regular updates due to antigenic drift causing loss of effectiveness and therefore pro..

Forecasting influenza outbreak dynamics in Melbourne from Internet search query surveillance data

R Moss, A Zarebski, P Dawson, JM McCaw

2016-07-01

Background: Accurate forecasting of seasonal influenza epidemics is of great concern to healthcare providers in temperate climates..

On the role of CD8 T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection

P Cao, Z Wang, AWC Yan, J McVernon, J Xu, JM Heffernan, K Kedzierska, JM McCaw

2016-01-01

Myriad experiments have identified an important role for CD8⁺ T cell response mechanisms in determining recovery from i..

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

H Ali, E Cameron, CC Drovandi, JM McCaw, RJ Guy, M Middleton, C El-Hayek, JS Hocking, JM Kaldor, B Donovan, DP Wilson

2015-11-01

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the dev..

Defining long-term drivers of pertussis resurgence, and optimal vaccine control strategies

PT Campbell, JM McCaw, P McIntyre, J McVernon

2015-10-26

Pertussis resurgence has been reported from several developed countries with long-standing immunisation programs. Among these, Aus..

Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy

PT Campbell, JM McCaw, J McVernon

2015-01-01

Pertussis remains a challenging public health problem with many aspects of infection, disease and immunity poorly understood. Init..

Quantifying relative within-host replication fitness in influenza virus competition experiments

SM Petrie, J Butler, IG Barr, J McVernon, AC Hurt, JM McCaw

2015-01-01

Through accumulation of genetic mutations in the neuraminidase gene, the influenza virus can become resistant to antiviral drugs s..

The dynamical consequences of seasonal forcing, immune boosting and demographic change in a model of disease transmission

MP Dafilis, F Frascoli, J McVernon, JM Heffernan, JM McCaw

2014-11-21

The impact of seasonal effects on the time course of an infectious disease can be dramatic. Seasonal fluctuations in the transmiss..

Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics

JM McCaw, K Glass, GN Mercer, J McVernon

2014-03-01

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, ..

Dynamical crises, multistability and the influence of the duration of immunity in a seasonally-forced model of disease transmission

MP Dafilis, F Frascoli, J McVernon, JM Heffernan, JM McCaw

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Highly successful strategies to make populations more resilient to infectious diseases, such as childhood vaccinations..

Estimating the Fitness Advantage Conferred by Permissive Neuraminidase Mutations in Recent Oseltamivir-Resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Viruses

J Butler, KA Hooper, S Petrie, R Lee, S Maurer-Stroh, L Reh, T Guarnaccia, C Baas, L Xue, S Vitesnik, SK Leang, J McVernon, A Kelso, IG Barr, JM McCaw, JD Bloom, AC Hurt

2014-01-01

Oseltamivir is relied upon worldwide as the drug of choice for the treatment of human influenza infection. Surveillance for oselta..

Household transmission of respiratory viruses - assessment of viral, individual and household characteristics in a population study of healthy Australian adults

JM McCaw, PF Howard, PC Richmond, M Nissen, T Sloots, SB Lambert, M Lai, M Greenberg, T Nolan, J McVernon

2012-12-11

Background: Household transmission of influenza-like illness (ILI) may vary with viral and demographic characteristics. We examine..

Drivers and consequences of influenza antiviral resistant-strain emergence in a capacity-constrained pandemic response

MP Dafilis, R Moss, J McVernon, J McCaw

2012-12-01

Antiviral agents remain a key component of most pandemic influenza preparedness plans, but there is considerable uncertainty regar..